Allah Help the Jackals

Allah Help the Jackals

While it’s obvious that overplaying your power can result in a downfall, it’s less obvious that underplaying it also leads to trouble. America did this in the 1970s under Carter. Israel seems to have done it almost perennially.

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mericans are accused of being imperialist, Israelis of being expansionist. The truth behind this accusation is of course its opposite: no nations in the world are so content to be insular. Both respect the otherness of other nations but just want to be left alone to get on with their fascination with themselves. So irritating!

At the same time, both nations seek to engage the world deeply. America has successfully done so for decades, and Israel has always sought friendly relations with other countries. Both mainly get into trouble when their instincts leads them to underplay their power and tend towards isolationism. Whereas it’s obvious that overplaying your power leads to your downfall ⁠— Hitler’s two-front war, Saddam’s continuation of his beef with the US after a lucky break in 1991, and America’s recent Middle East nation-building ⁠— it’s less obvious that underplaying your power also leads to trouble. Outside of one-off military strikes, Israel has done so well nigh perennially.

Israel in some ways accepts the propaganda war against it at face value and acts as if the whole Middle East is against it. Which is of course true, but there are more relevant truths, such as the facts that many Middle Eastern nations are more immediately at odds with other, and that Israel is an integral part of and a vital player in the region. Israel should more thoroughly recognize this reality and behave accordingly.

When deemed absolutely necessary, Israel has played its part and intervened in the region. It saved Jordan from a Syrian invasion after destabilization from the PLO; acted similarly in Lebanon a few years later; and took out Iraq’s nuclear reactor [Update 2018 Mar 20: Ditto Syria’s.] But all these have been extreme measures, hostilities, whereas involvement at all levels should be an ongoing activity, peace treaties or the lack whereof notwithstanding. Mutual interests don’t require peace treaties.

Arguably there is some merit in not getting involved, that the Arab rejectionism has been a blessing in disguise, keeping Israel away from the mostly despicable morass that passes for Middle Eastern relations. But Israel is no longer quite so young and impressionable, and such willful ignorance has now become more a hindrance than a help. Israel is part of the Middle East, and even if it doesn’t step into the Arab world, the Arab world, in case we haven’t noticed, will step into it.

More than that. With power comes responsibility, as one Jewish mythmaker wrote, but Israel does not fully act upon its own mighty power and heavy responsibilities in the region. This irresponsibility causes real danger. When the mightiest force in the region behaves mostly like a timid victim, it throws everybody else off kilter, distracting them from their own business, suggesting spoils when there aren’t any.

Israel does nobody any favors by trying to do people favors. Its concern that its neighbors don’t like it is ridiculous, if not outlandish. If Israel started playing a part, issuing statements in Arabic, endorsing this Jordanian politician, condemning that piece of Egyptian legislation, it would no longer be such a pariah. But to do so it has to take enough of an interest in its neighbors to speak about things that don’t concern it directly but which it believes are important. It has to start punching at its weight, which is significant.

Perhaps Israel is following a subconscious national strategy of the strong, in which it behaves too meekly for a decade or so, emboldens its vicious but feeble enemies until they go too far, then lashes out in a now-obviously-justifiable response and gains untold assets in the process. This is clearly what has happened with the US. Clinton under-projected American power, leading to September 11th, which led to the US taking possession of Iraq.

While Israel inhales, its own citizens must ⁠— scandalously ⁠— beware. But when it exhales, Allah help the jackals. This seems pretty irresponsible behavior, but in the two-party system that forms the heart of the modern liberal democracy, a bait-and-switch foreign policy may be inevitable until a foe learns to stay down.

[Update 2018 Mar 20: Having been playing Risk a lot lately, I now see the benefits of infrequent, overwhelming interventions. The long down-time enables the conservation and nurturing of forces, so that when an overwhelming attack does come, it does so with an intangible impression of invincibility that discourages opposition. That is to say, familiarity could breed contempt.]

Update 2023 Oct 8: In the wake of the opening day of what may become known as the Simchat Torah War, Times of Israel senior analyst Haviv Retteg Gur has written “A wounded, weakened Israel is a fiercer one”, stating a similar point to Allah Help the Jackals but with more particularity regarding both the terrible events of the day and Israel’s particular enemy. Gur writes (oh so well):

There are many different kinds of power. There is the power of the confident, safe and strong. But there’s also the very different sort of power of the wounded, weak and desperate. These are psychological states, not objective realities. And pivoting from one to the other changes everything … A strong Israel may tolerate a belligerent Hamas on its border; a weaker one cannot. A safe Israel can spend much time and resources worrying about the humanitarian fallout from a Gaza ground war; a more vulnerable Israel cannot.

The Trail

Wednesday, June 17th, 2026

Amit Segal, longer than usual for his It’s Noon in Israel newsletter, posits the perennial faultline in Israel politics: Jewish vs Israeli.

“Jewish” and “Israeli” are simply the two tenets of Israel’s self-definition as a Jewish and democratic state ⁠— not in open contradiction, since most Israelis hold both, but forever rubbing against each other. Like asking whether strawberry-banana yogurt is more strawberry or banana, Israelis are endlessly asked, in one disguise or another, whether they are slightly more Jewish than democratic or the reverse. Once you see it, most of the news in the country ⁠— most push notifications, most studio shouting matches ⁠— dissolves into that same question, with a thin veneer of fresh event on top.

Segal himself straddles the divide nicely, as does the society writ large, part and parcel of the fading Ashkenazi/Sephardi divide. In my thin slice of observation, secular Israelis who delight in eating swine abroad now light candles and recite more complete prayers at home for Friday night dinner than they used to ⁠— indeed holding Friday night dinner itself is the gateway. And there are so many gateways.

I do however take issue with Amit’s characterization of the Israeli/left side:

Of course we are Jewish, the left answers ⁠— the flag is essentially a prayer shawl, the emblem is the Temple menorah, every kindergartner comes home Friday with a challah ⁠— but that is the décor, not the purpose; the purpose is to be the only democracy in the Middle East.

Instead, it seems to me that people on this side, those of the “villa in the jungle” view, would rather just forget about the jungle; being “the only X in the Middle East” is merely apologetics, not identity. Rather, it’s about being a liberal democracy simply because that is the enlightened, obvious, natural thing to be; anyone with a Yiddisher kopf can see that. And as for the Right downgrading democracy to merely being the operating system, well, that’s what Judaism itself arguably is too, so being the OS is no small thing.

I don’t go to synagogue but the synagogue that I don’t go to is Orthodox.

David Ben-Gurion

Friday, June 12th, 2026

Francesco Parrino is getting the Benny and Björn spirit of things here with his piano cover of Super Trouper, probably my favorite ABBA song ⁠— though like with other covers of his I’ve listened to, I enjoy the first half of the track more than the second.